Introduction

Bird flu (avian influenza) is a highly infectious virus that affects birds. There are two main strains: LPAI (low pathogenic avian influenza) and HPAI (Highly pathogenic avian influenza). These can each cause different symptoms in infected birds, ranging from respiratory to neurological issues that may result in death; however, not all birds show symptoms when infected.

The virus is passed to humans by direct contact with an infected bird, contact with its faeces, or sharing food and water sources.¹ Due to the high infectiousness of the virus and its ability to go undetected in birds, it is difficult to contain and manage. Moreover, it is present in both wild and domestic bird populations.

The global poultry industry is reported to be worth over $300 billion.² The industry can be divided into the following economic components: 

• Meat production
• Egg production
• Poultry feed production

The economic importance of this industry speaks for itself, with a contribution of about $500 billion annually to the global economy and with the poultry industry making up more than 40% of the global meat market. It is also an industry that is expected to grow by more than 4% over the next few years. This increase in demand is mainly due to the sustainability and affordability of poultry products compared to other meat products.²

Bird flu is an established concern and has already started impacting the poultry industry by killing at least 422 million domestic birds between 2005 and 2022.³ It is likely to become a larger issue unless measures can be taken to protect domestic birds and reduce its spread.

Direct economic impacts

The poultry industry has many sectors that contribute to its economic value, all of which are affected in some way when a problem such as bird flu occurs.

Loss of poultry stock

Once bird flu is confirmed to be present in a population of domestic poultry, there are several ways to minimise the spread of the virus. One control measure, frequently used and often enforced by governments, is the culling of both infected and healthy birds.⁴ This has proved to be a successful control measure in most cases, but comes at great cost to the farmers as they lose an entire flock. Some governments, such as the UK, do offer some financial compensation, but this only covers the culling of healthy birds, which still leaves the farmers with a loss of earnings.⁵

This loss of livestock results in a loss of poultry production, and once a flock has been culled, there are decontamination measures that delay the farmers from being able to bring in new birds. This includes measures like disinfecting affected areas and preventing contact with other birds.⁶ These all lead to a reduced number of poultry products making it to the market.

Cost of disease control measures

Efforts are being made to reduce the spread of bird flu via vaccination and improved biosecurity measures.

Vaccination protocols have been adopted by some countries, like China, and research shows that they significantly reduce the infection rate of the virus. If a bird has been vaccinated against the virus, it is less likely to contract the illness, so this reduces the number of birds lost and minimises the risk of the virus infecting humans. If vaccination rates within domestic poultry populations are high, there could be a reduction in the spread of the virus to the wild bird population, too.³

However, vaccines can be costly to research, manufacture and distribute. Underprivileged countries may not be able to implement a vaccine order, and/or individual poultry farmers may be unable to afford to cover their flocks without government funding.³

Biosecurity measures, like minimising contact between wild and domestic birds, can be used to reduce the spread of the virus. This can be done by housing domestic flocks indoors, worker education and limiting foot traffic through the farms. However, it has been shown that keeping the birds indoors increases the cost of feeding as they require more. But, there is also evidence that egg amount and size increase too, which can help offset the increased cost.⁷

Other factors that need to be considered in disease control measures are the costs involved in testing flocks for virus infection and typing any viruses found. Some countries require cases of bird flu to be reported, including suspicious wild bird deaths. In the UK, it is a notifiable disease, meaning it is a legal requirement to report both suspected and confirmed cases.⁸

Supply chain disruptions

As mentioned, when flocks are housed indoors, the feed requirements increase. If this occurs in an area or country in large numbers and quickly, such as when vaccines become mandated, the demand for additional feed will increase rapidly. Feed manufacturers may not be able to predict and prepare for this, which can lead to a feed shortage. It may also not be possible for production and delivery of the feed to be increased enough to meet demand for several reasons, such as; sourcing the products to produce the food; not being able to increase production levels; and not having the infrastructure to deliver larger volumes of food to where it is needed.

The long-term picture for feed producers would, however, be worse if bird flu becomes such a concern that poultry production reduces due to financial pressures limiting those able to continue production. Should this happen, then demand for feed may decrease as domestic poultry numbers drop.

Market and price effects

Price volatility

Inevitably, if bird flu affects flocks, leading to death and culls, the amount of meat available on the market will be reduced. As with most products, if a supply is decreased but manufacturing costs remain similar or increase, final product prices will increase to cover the difference.⁸

If bird flu has ongoing effects on meat and egg production, then increasing prices will not only reduce consumers’ ability to buy the products, but also push them towards alternatives. Consumers may also lose trust in the products as reports of bird flu may put into question the safety of the product.⁹ The concern for the farmers and producers of poultry products is whether consumers will return to buying poultry products once meat and egg production returns to prior levels.²

Employment and livelihood

Bird flu provides uncertainty to farms and related industries such as meat or egg processing plants, which can affect employment demands for those industries. Fewer birds need fewer caretakers. This can be particularly concerning for underprivileged countries or areas where employment opportunities are already limited.¹⁰

Government and industry response

Governments in different countries have had differing approaches to tackling bird flu and offer different levels of support to those affected. As mentioned, the UK offers some financial aid but doesn’t support vaccination protocols for commercial flocks.⁵ Other countries, such as China, have implemented vaccination schedules but not financial assistance.⁴

The different responses to bird flu also depend on whether funding is available for research, development and vaccine production. Alternative approaches for prevention, such as improved biosecurity, may be more realistic for countries with less scope for such funding.

Summary

As we have discussed, bird flu impacts many aspects of the poultry industry and can be managed in various ways. To reach a point where bird flu levels are reduced, possibly controlled, or even ideally eradicated, global schemes need to be followed. This will protect the domestic poultry in a country, which in turn protects the industry’s economy and helps the wild bird populations whose health and diversity are also being negatively impacted by the presence of the virus.